Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in close U.S. presidential race: exclusive poll

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to a new survey, but it’s still set to be a close election.

The Postmedia-Leger poll found Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump by a four-point margin, if the U.S. presidential election was held today

Following U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the election in late July, reportedly under pressure from his Democratic party, he endorsed Harris, which immediately shifted the dynamics of the race, positioning the Democrats with a slight lead over Trump.

Leger’s president and CEO, Jean-Marc Leger, said Harris’ entry into the race as the presidential candidate for the Democrats courted more support from women, youths, and black and Latino communities.

“These are four groups that support more Harris than Biden,” said Leger.

In May, when Biden was still in the race, Trump led with 46 per cent, while the Democrats were at 45 per cent. On July 29, just over a week after Biden dropped out, Trump still had 46 per cent, but Harris had pulled ahead with 49 per cent.

The poll indicates that since Biden’s exit, support for the Democrats has risen by four points, with 50 per cent now supporting the Democrats and 46 per cent backing the Republican candidate.

“You should also understand that 50 against 46 per cent may be a close race. Because last time, when Biden won by 4.3 per cent that was exactly the number he won,” Leger told National Post. (In the 2020 election, Biden was elected with 51 per cent of the popular vote, compared to the 47 per cent who voted for Trump.) “It was a really close race, state by state. So the four points lead means it will be a really close election.”

The two candidates are set to face off in a presidential debate on Sept. 10 for the first time since Biden’s withdrawal. The debate will give about 240 million American voters a chance to learn both candidates’ national and international policies.

When asked who they believe will win the debate, 51 per cent of respondents predicted a victory for Harris, while 49 per cent favoured Trump.

Overall, the poll reveals that nearly half of Americans (47 per cent) have an unfavourable view of Trump, compared to 43 per cent who view him favourably. Harris, meanwhile, has a 44 per cent favourable rating, with 39 per cent viewing her unfavourably. Twelve per cent of respondents are unfamiliar enough with Harris to form an opinion, compared to just five per cent for Trump.

Leger said three key factors boosted Harris’ support to 50 per cent: picking Tim Walz as her running mate, the success of the convention and the fact that two-thirds of Americans had not wanted a re-match between Biden and Trump.

In mid-July, Trump picked Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate, while Harris chose Walz, the governor of Minnesota. According to the poll, a third of Americans are not familiar enough with either running mate to form an opinion. Walz leads with a 34 per cent favourable impression, while Vance has 26 per cent. In terms of unfavourable impressions, 35 per cent of respondents view Vance negatively, compared to 27 per cent for Walz. Both vice-presidential candidates have 34 per cent of respondents who are not familiar enough with them to form an opinion.

The poll also found that four out of ten Americans believe the Democratic National Convention was better than the Republican one. Among Democrats, 80 per cent favoured their convention, while 71 per cent of Republicans felt positively about theirs.

Leger, who has participated in both parties’ conventions since 2004, says this year was different.

“The Trump convention was good to adjust after the assassination attempt. So the feeling was different,” he said. “On the other side, the Democratic convention, you have more joy, more enthusiasm. You saw that on a TV, but it was more than that when you were there physically.”

When asked who they think will win the Nov. 5 election, respondents were evenly split, with 50 per cent saying they think Trump will win, and the other half believing Harris will be the next U.S. president.

The Leger poll was conducted online among 1,032 Americans aged 18 and older, between Aug. 23 and 25. The online sample was weighted based on age, gender, region, education, race, and household size to ensure it represents the American population. A margin of error cannot be calculated for an online poll, but a probability sample would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.05 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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